Scouting the Competition: A Look at the AL Central

     As in every competition, it’s always good to size up your opponents and see how you stand against them.  You want to know their strengths, their weaknesses, and above all, what it’s going to take to beat them.  After a cursory glance, the AL Central doesn’t seem like it’s going to give the White Sox too much trouble.  Sure, the Twins and Tigers fought it out last year, but both clubs have gone through some big changes in this offseason and suddenly the Sox are starting to look more like frontrunners these days than they had in previous seasons.  So today, I’ve decided to take a look at each of our division rivals, analyze their offense and pitching and discuss how the South Siders match up against them.  I’ll be as objective as possible, but my gut is telling me I’m not going to have to stray too far from White Sox AL Central title mentality.  Let’s have a look-see…

Minnesota Twins

Overview:  The Twinkies can be equated to an angry terrier nipping at your ankles each year.  They are a tough, competitive club that is in the thick of it virtually on an annual basis.  Their foundation lies with AL MVP Joe Mauer and his all-star compadre Justin Morneau, but this offseason has been different than normal.  Suddenly the Twins are spending money and their 2010 payroll should be almost $30M higher than last year’s.  Should we be worried?

Offense:  As stated, Mauer and Morneau offer the biggest firepower on the team.  These guys are a constant and we’ll be looking at them in Twinkie costumes for a very long time, atleast until Morneau’s back goes out on him…again.  A few offseason moves to bolster their lineup as they brought in J.J. Hardy from the Brewers and recently signed Orlando Hudson to anchor the middle infield.  The defense might be good, but O-Dog’s only a mediocre #2 guy in the lineup with minimal speed and Hardy struggled mightily last year in a potent lineup and a major hitter’s park in a year he was supposed to peak.  Sure, the Sox have a soft spot in their hearts for Jim Thome, but we passed and let the Twins pick up a part-time DH who can only hit righties.  Now the Twins have 2 DHs that can’t hit lefties.  Hmm.  Denard Span gives some speed to the top of the order, but for me, the rest of the lot — Brendan Harris, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young – are just ho-hum.  No way Cuddyer tops 30 HR again.

Pitching:  The top 2 guys appear to be Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey.  Both solid starters but each had ratio concerns last year.  Slowey’s can atleat be blamed on injury, but Baker needs to improve dramatically if he wants to be considered a front line starter.  Nick Blackburn can be a decent middle of the rotation guy, but Carl Pavano???  I don’t care what his flashes of brilliance looked like in ‘09…I have zero confidence in him putting together a good year this season.  The team still needs a 5th starter, so the competition between Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing should be one to watch.  I’m guesssing Duensing wins out, Liriano heads to the pen and we all go home happy.  Speaking of the pen, Joe Nathan is still one fo the best, but that set-up crew is looking weaker and weaker these days.

Sox Concerns:  Not many, actually.  The Twins will always be a scrappy team that we’ll have to fight with, tooth and nail, but when push comes to shove, I like our balanced lineup against their average starting pitching.  My only concern is our batting average versus righties which the Twins are loaded up on.  We only hit .249 against right handed pitching and that’s not going to cut it.  I’ll send the note to Ozzie this spring but it’s very likely the team is already on it.

Detroit Tigers

Overview:  Division leaders for most of the 2009 season, the Tigers crumbled at the end of last year and blew it against the Twins in a one game playoff that never should have happened.  All eyes on the troubled Miguel Cabrera who is battling alcohol and apparently spousal abuse demons that led to his demise in ‘09.  The team also slashed some payroll and lost some interesting components to their previous years’ success and replaced them with unproven youth.  Looks liek an interesting crossroads for the Motown squad.

Offense:  Like I said before, a lot is hinging on the way Cabrera deals with his problems.  He still plenty young, so the question of maturity certainly comes into play when talking about recovery.  I could be an uphill climb for him to re-establish himself as a perennial triple crown threat.  The team lost a serious offensive tool in Curtis Granderson and have a lot of youth in that lineup now.  Austin Jackson could be a nice top of the order guy, but has yet to take a major league at bat.  Scott Sizemore and Ryan Rayburn are also big question marks.  Then there are guys like Gerald Laird and Adam Everett who couldn’t hit their way out of a paper bag.  Oh yeah, and then there’s Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, but they disappeared a long time ago.

Pitching:  Definitely the Tigers strength.  I like their top 3 starters very much.  Justin Verlander is an unquestioned ace, Max Scherzer should do very well for himself in Comerica Park and Rick Porcello could be a nice solid middle of the rotation guy if he can build on some of his ‘09 success.  After that, it gets a little sketchy with Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman.  Both have dealt with injuries and declines and each are a question mark coming into this season.  The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Jose Valverde, and the pen looks solid with Joel Zumaya, Zach Miner and newly acquired Phil Coke and Bobby Schlereth

Sox Concerns:  Again, it’s about how we take on right handed pitching again.  The Tigers are loaded up on righty starters and their lefty specialists out of the pen are decent.  I think our veteran hurlers can out-think their youngsters at the plate, so it’s about our own matchups at the plate.  If there was a way to get to Verlander, I’m sure Ozzie is busy thinking it up right now, but as for the others, we’re going to have to show some serious plate discipline.  Porcello and Scherzer are both young and use their sliders to get hitters fishing.  If we can lay off the breaking stuff that sits outside the strike zone, we cna find success.

Cleveland Indians

Overview:  This is seriously a team in transition.  The youth movement is alive and well, and this squad actually looks worse (and less recognizable) than their Major League counterparts on the big screen.  Does that mean they can surprise everyone and make a big push this year?  Not likely.  Their biggest offensive weapons are nothing like they used to be, and their pitching is just as mediocre.  If they’re not careful, they could actually replace the Royals as the annual cellar-dwellars.

Offense:  Victor Martinez is gone, Grady Sizemore is still recovering from a variety of injuries and Travis Hafner was done like dinner two years ago.  Jhonny Peralta needs to prove last year’s decline was a fluke, Shin-Soo Choo is looking ahead to the Asian Games in Novemeber (a gold in those games gets him out of his 2 year mandatory military service in Korea), and the rest of the crew just has no stick.  Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera is a player on the rise but he has no pop in his bat.  Sure, Matt LaPorta is a developing power, but he’s still likely a year or two away.  Lou Marson?  Luis Valbuena?  Michael Brantley?  Come on.

Pitching:  Well, following suit with the Twins and Tigers, the Tribe is front-loaded with right handed starters.  Unfortunately, those right handers are pretty grim to look at.  Jake Westbrook is still on the comeback trail, Justin Masterson is getting his first real crack at a starting job, and have you seen the way baserunners circle Fausto Carmona?  It’s like a carousel.  There’s nothing in the back end of the rotation and Kerry Wood out of the pen is a laugher.

Sox Concerns:  None.  Not a single thingh I can think of.  I think the Tribe’s pitching is so bad that even we can hit their righties at .300 a clip.  Their lineup is not formidable in any way so giving up runs isn’t too much of a concern of mine, and if for some inane reason we struggle at the plate, well then just get into their bullpen and let the fireworks begin!

Kansas City Royals

Overview:  Looks like Chicago South, doesn’t it?  The Royals picked up a number of Sox cast-offs in Scott Podsednick, Chris Getz, Josh Fields and Brian Anderson, and that’s fine by me.  None of them did anything dazzling for us, so what’s to make me think they can do anything in less of a hitter’s park with even worse hitters around them?  They have a major weapon on the mound in Zack Greinke, a top closer in Joakim Soria and a potential all star in Billy Butler, but beyond that…?  Zip.  Zilch. Nada. Bupkis.

Offense:  Butler is all you really have to worry about here.  He’s got blossoming power, but should be easy to pitch around since there’s little else in the lineup to support him.  Pods can set the table at the top of the lineup, but who’s going to bring him home?  Jose Guillen should be on the DL by May, Alex Gordon should follow him soon after, and Rick Ankiel, well, again, get out your gauze pads.  They can be a formidable 3-4-5 punch, but how much do you think they’ll actually play together?  Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt and David DeJesus are all power starved as well, and can you even believe Jason Kendall still plays?  The guy’s 82 years old and still can’t hit his weight.

Pitching:  Greinke, Greinke, Greinke.  Soria, Soria, Soria.  If the Royals could just pitch these two every game they would.  And why not?  They’re the best this team will see right now.  Gil Meche is coming off of his worst year and is still having shoulder issues and the combination of Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies probably doesn’t even scare the Indians.  The bullpen is mediocre at best and it looks like the Royals will be using them mostly for mop up duty.

Sox Concerns:  The only concern the Sox have is where to find the best K.C. barbecue near the stadium.  Another slew of righties in the rotation, but none of them, save for Greinke, should give us any grounds for worry.  I’m sure if we go in too confident we’ll drop a game or two to them, but if we go in hard-nosed and play solid ball, there’s no reason we can’t sweep the season series from these clowns.

     So there you have it Sox fans.  Looks like it’s again just a three team race for the Central title.  But with the Tigers going the youth route on offense and the Twinkies spending their big bucks on mediocrity now, I think our chances of easing into the division lead nice and early are strong.  We’ll need to work to stay there, but with this unbalanced schedule, we should have a pretty good shot at maintaining and taking the division in 2010.  I’ve put out the word to some of the other Fanball correspondents that write for these teams to see how they feel coming into this season, so unless they have no confidence in their squads, we’ll get some chatter going and can finish the comparisons.

Tags: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, White Sox